Pac-12 Rebuild: A Recap

This is an ongoing situation. This article will be updated periodically to reflect new developments. (last updated 10/3, 11:20 AM CDT)

The embattled Pac-12 conference is quickly rebuilding, and it’s starting to get really confusing. So us here at HBS are here to clear that up with a quick recap.

Who’s in?

Oregon State and Washington State, left behind by the 10 former Pac schools, remain in the conference. Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Utah State will be joining the conference from the Mountain West, with Gonzaga joining from the West Coast Conference, in 2026.

Utah State, announced in a press release Monday night, is the most recent school to join from the Mountain West. This occured while they were waiting for a commitment from UNLV, as they accepted a last-minute offer from the conference less than an hour before they were due to sign a 7-year media rights commitment to the MWC.

Gonzaga, after weeks of talks with the conference, was announced Tuesday morning as the eighth member, leaving the WCC after over 40 years of membership.

The Pac-12 needs eight full football-playing members to meet the requirements to be a full FBS conference, meaning that they need one more.

What teams are being targeted?

The MWC’s media rights lock was contingent upon all eight remaining schools signing, however, now that Utah State is gone, everything is back up in the air.

No official word has been given, but many are saying that UNLV is the next target, being the best remaining option. Air Force, already having been courted by the Pac-12, is also available. Despite this, if Air Force moves conferences, they are most likely going to join the American Athletic Conference with Army and Navy.

UPDATE: Air Force and UNLV are expected to stay in the MWC. HBS analysts theorize that this was a government decision, from the Pentagon and Nevada state legislature respectively.

UPDATE 2: UNLV has been ranked for the first time in program history.

After the addition of Gonzaga, it would make some kind of twisted sense to add UConn. The Hartford Courant has reported that they’re in talks, however, travel would be a great issue.

Hawaii, after talks with both the Pac-12 and Conference USA, has not only elected to continue playing football in the Mountain West, but is also now in talks to leave the Big West Conference and become an all-sports member of the MWC.

New Mexico has been dominant in basketball as of late, but with a historically awful football program, it doesn’t seem like they would be a good option.

California and Stanford left the Pac-12 in 2024 for the unstable ACC. Due to the ACC’s impregnable Grant of Rights agreement, returning to the Pac in their current position is almost completely out of the question. If the ACC’s situation were to change, a return would be more likely, however, Cal and Stanford may not want to be “relegated” to a conference with middling programs like Colorado State and Utah State.

Memphis, USF, UTSA and Tulane were being targeted, however, all four committed to membership in the AAC before the addition of Gonzaga. Memphis is rumored to have returned to the table after the aforementioned addition. Texas State, another potential target, has not made a commitment to the Sun Belt, however, we find it unlikely that they would leave their current conference for one that is unbalanced and unstable like the Pac-12.

UPDATE: The Mountain West is now allegedly targeting Texas State, along with MAC schools Northern Illinois and Toledo, per ESPN’s Pete Thamel. Additionally, the Mountain West briefly updated their football standings to include Idaho, according to a tweet from RedditCFB.

UPDATE 2: ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports that sources are saying Texas State has received a verbal offer to join the Mountain West Conference. Further details unknown.

UPDATE 3: UTEP has joined the MWC as their first addition since the exodus to the Pac-12. Official announcement pending.

UPDATE 4: Texas State will remain in the Sun Belt.

Finally, Sacramento State, an FCS team, has a group of boosters lobbying for Pac-12 membership. As of October 2nd, this group has raised $35M in NIL funds, secured funds for a new stadium, and is currently working out a deal to play basketball in the Sacramento Kings’ arena. We do not think that a former power conference will take a mid-tier FCS team, however, they could be a huge Mountain West expansion target.

We have organized these targets into three tiers:

Conclusion

The Pac-12 is a complicated conference, but we here at HBS are confident that this will probably maybe end kinda well. This article will be updated as more news comes in.